As rizzla said, some plots consume water and as they upgrade, this gets higher. The workshop number takes this into account. So like a pump adds 3 water to the workshop number, a farm removes water from that number. So if (for example) a farm upgrades or a new one is built, you will see that number go down (commercial and higher level residential also use water).
Also, if you use the logistics station for the supply line, some water may be taken off to give to another settlement. This also removes it directly off the workshop number you see.
In short, when using Sim Settlements, the number you see in the workshop isn't just the addition of all of your water sources. There are also things being subtracted from it as well.
EDIT : If you go into the local plot report on the sim settlements desk, when you choose a plot type it will tell you how much water all the plots of that type are consuming. If you go into the logistics plot, you can use the terminal there to get the information report which will tell you if that settlement is exporting (or importing) any water.